KSE-100 posts 4.5% weekly gain as oil prices slide

The KSE-100 index closed at 173,887 on Friday, gaining 7,477 points or 4.5% over the week in its strongest rally in nearly six months. Arif Habib Limited's weekly report attributed the rise to sentiment after the Democrats' midterm election victory in the United States, which it said drove a sharp fall in oil prices on November 4.

The index added 155 points (0.09%) to 166,564 on the first session as profit-booking checked an oil price dip. It rose 1,455 points (0.87%) to 168,018 on Tuesday, 3,995 points on Wednesday to reclaim 172,000, and 3,366 points (1.96%) to 175,380 on Thursday. Profit-taking before the long weekend cut 1,493 points (0.85%) on the last day.

Mohsin Shafi Qureshi of JS Global linked the rally to a steep drop in crude prices after Iran signalled it was open to talks to end the war, easing concern over inflation and the external account. Brent closed the week at $98.50 a barrel against an average of $115.50 the week before. Average daily volume rose 43% to 856 million shares and traded value rose 24% to $103 million.

October inflation eased to 9.6% year on year from 10.3% in September. State Bank reserves rose $39 million to $21.56 billion. The government cut petrol by Rs25.32 to Rs352.59 a litre and high-speed diesel by Rs20.71 to Rs382.25.

The auction of government papers raised Rs385.6 billion against a target of Rs350 billion, with yields falling 0.4 to 12 basis points and the largest participation, Rs165.3 billion, in the three-year tenor. The trade deficit for October was $3.9 billion, with exports at $2.9 billion, up 2.8% year on year and 0.2% month on month, and imports at $6.8 billion, up 11.8% and 5.7%.

Refinery sales rose 9.7% year on year to 1,119,000 tons and 3.2% month on month. Total energy product demand fell 1% to 1.48 million tons as diesel sales dropped 7.3% and petrol 2.3%. Oil production rose 8.9% week on week to 64,700 barrels a day on revived flows from northern fields, while gas output slipped 0.4% to 3,063 mmcfd on lower Mari production. Urea offtake rose 39% to 487,000 tons, with FFC up 54% to 257,000 tons.

The finance minister said external accounts remained comfortable. The IMF urged Pakistan to widen its tax base and the FBR chairman signalled the government would abolish the super tax. Public debt rose Rs6.2 trillion to Rs91 trillion in FY26. CPPA-G sought an 8% tariff increase and Ogra notified a 15.3% rise in RLNG prices.