Super El Nino threatens Pakistan with heat, drought in 2027

Pakistan faces a heightened risk of extreme heat, drought and food insecurity as an unusually strong El Nino is projected to make 2027 likely the hottest year on record, according to warnings cited by Dawn from the World Meteorological Organisation and climate scientists. A separate report by the University of Chicago's Climate Impact Lab, carried by Minute Mirror, projects that extreme heat linked to the phenomenon could contribute to as many as 451,000 excess deaths worldwide through February 2027.

The Climate Impact Lab estimates the number of extremely hot days could rise by about 44 per cent compared with normal years. Its projections cover the first nine months of the event, with researchers warning that El Nino could also bring drought, wildfires and disrupted rainfall. Pakistan is among countries that could face heightened risk, particularly in the summer months if the pattern persists into 2027, the researchers said.

Dawn reported from Islamabad that the cumulative effects of global warming and El Nino have put Pakistan in "uncharted waters", with the weather pattern capable of pushing the country toward food insecurity and extreme temperatures. The newspaper cited the WMO and climate scientists as saying a very strong El Nino increases the likelihood of significant shifts in temperature and rainfall patterns across the globe.

According to the University of Chicago projections reported by Minute Mirror, the largest projected additional heat-related death toll between September 2026 and February 2027 is in Nigeria, with an estimated 31,400 deaths, followed by Indonesia with 19,300 and Sudan with about 17,600. Across the Sahel region of Niger, Chad, Nigeria and Sudan, researchers project about 66,800 additional deaths over that six-month period. Southeast Asian countries, including the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia, are projected to record a combined 19,400 additional deaths, while India is projected to see about 15,800.

Michael Greenstone, co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab, said the projections can help decision-makers identify areas where emergency measures could reduce heat-related deaths. Researchers cited early-warning systems, cooling facilities and protections for outdoor workers as possible ways to limit the impact of extreme heat.

The Climate Impact Lab described the event as a "postcard from the future", arguing that the extreme temperatures provide an indication of conditions that climate change could make increasingly common in coming decades. The lab said it would continue updating projections as the El Nino develops.