El Niño forecast puts farmers from Chad to Nigeria on alert
WMO expects the pattern to strengthen before a December peak, as Chad's Wadi Fira counts drought losses and a Nigerian state warns of heat.
Forecasters expect the El Niño climate pattern to strengthen before a December peak and to persist into early 2027, and farmers from Chad to Malawi are already counting what drought has cost them.
The World Meteorological Organization said in its October climate update that the pattern would raise the likelihood of above-average temperatures over large parts of the world and shift rainfall, increasing the risk of drought and flooding in different regions. Punch, which reported the advisory, also cited the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's October 8 outlook, which projected a strong-to-very-strong El Niño lasting through January to March 2027.
In Chad, Wadi Fira is one of the two regions hardest hit by drought, France 24 reported. Farmers a few kilometres outside Biltine, the regional capital, were taking stock of their losses, the broadcaster said in a report by Harold Girard. France 24 did not name the second region or give a figure for the losses.
In Nigeria, the Ekiti State government told farmers to prepare for heat waves and other weather changes tied to the forecast. Ebenezer Ojo, permanent secretary of the state ministry of agriculture and food security, said in a statement issued in Ado Ekiti on Monday that farming could face irregular rainfall, higher temperatures, reduced soil moisture and altered planting conditions, with consequences for crop development, livestock and food supply.
Ojo said El Niño was not an automatic signal of nationwide drought or lower rainfall in Nigeria, and that the effect would depend on regional atmospheric conditions. He advised farmers to follow Nigerian Meteorological Agency forecasts, to consult extension officers before changing planting dates, and to conserve soil moisture and manage water better.
Al Jazeera reported that cattle farmers in Malawi are travelling farther as El Niño worsens drought there.
FarmingUK reported that farmers face irrigation bans in 2027 as drought fears deepen. BusinessGreen reported warnings that drought could continue into next year despite autumn rain.
Punch noted that El Niño's influence on West Africa varies from place to place, which makes local seasonal forecasts important for farm planning. NiMet's Seasonal Climate Prediction gives state-level information on expected rainfall and temperature.
How the reports differ
France 24 led on the ground in Chad, naming Wadi Fira and Biltine and reporting farmers counting losses, and described the cause as an intensifying drought without invoking El Niño. Punch led with a Nigerian state government's advisory and the WMO and NOAA forecasts behind it, and cautioned that El Niño does not automatically mean less rain in Nigeria. Al Jazeera built its report around Malawi's cattle herders travelling farther because of El Niño, a country the other outlets did not cover. FarmingUK and BusinessGreen carried forward-looking warnings rather than accounts of losses already suffered, on 2027 irrigation bans and on drought lasting into next year despite autumn rain.
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