Winter fuel costs may lift December-February electricity bills

Electricity consumers across Pakistan may face fuel price adjustments two to three times higher than usual between December and February, according to Power Division sources cited by ARY News and Minute Mirror, as falling hydropower output pushes the grid onto costlier fuels.

Both outlets reported the expectation on Friday, quoting unnamed Power Division officials and describing the same three-month window. Neither report gave a figure in rupees per unit for the expected adjustment, and neither cited a fresh notification or determination from the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA).

According to ARY News, the sources said reduced hydropower generation in winter would increase reliance on expensive sources and push up production costs. They also warned that load management across the country could increase between December and February. The availability of locally supplied gas for power plants was described as a major challenge, alongside high fuel prices in the international market.

Minute Mirror carried the same expectations and added that the prices of LNG and coal are rising. It reported that domestic gas supplies are often insufficient in winter because household consumption is given priority, leaving power plants to turn to costlier fuels. The outlet also said recent efforts to contain the fuel burden included load management of up to two hours, but that international LNG prices have now risen considerably.

ARY News also recalled an earlier regulatory action: NEPRA imposed a total fine of Rs60 million on the Central Power Purchasing Agency (CPPA) and the National Transmission and Despatch Company over abnormal fuel costs and system inefficiencies in January 2024. According to the report, NEPRA had set the fuel cost benchmark for that month at Rs7.49 per unit, but the actual cost came to Rs14.60 per unit. The CPPA had sought an increase of Rs7.13 per unit under the fuel price adjustment, prompting the regulator to order an inquiry.

The inquiry found that cheaper generation sources were available but expensive electricity was produced using furnace oil and diesel, ARY News reported. NEPRA said output from LNG and nuclear plants was reduced, and that reliance on diesel and furnace oil resulted in costly generation worth Rs31.23 billion.

Fuel charges are normally passed to consumers through periodic adjustments determined by the regulator, which is why the monthly figure matters more to household bills than the headline tariff.

The two reports did not say whether a new fuel price adjustment request for the winter months has been filed, or when the regulator is expected to rule on one.