Energy institute puts savings from revised power plan at $17bn
Findings presented at a media dialogue in Islamabad also put local manufacturing potential at Rs1.1 trillion against Rs1.9 trillion of projected equipment demand.
The LUMS Energy Institute estimates that revising Pakistan's least-cost generation plan could save about $17 billion, and that improving energy efficiency in a quarter of the country's homes could cut peak demand by roughly 3,000 megawatts.
The figures were presented at the institute's second media dialogue on energy security in Islamabad, where its researchers set out modelling on generation planning, efficiency, grid stability and local manufacturing.
Dr Fiaz Ahmad Chaudhry, a senior adviser at the institute who chairs the board of National Grid Pakistan and sits as an independent director on the Independent System and Market Operator, presented research putting the savings from revised least-cost planning under the Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan 2025-2035 at about $17 billion.
The same work found that improving efficiency in only 25 percent of residential buildings could lower peak demand by about 3,000MW and save Rs442.6 billion a year in energy costs.
A separate study, 'The Net Zero Transition: A Pathway to Clean and Sustainable Electricity by 2040', modelled near-complete decarbonisation of the power sector by FY2040. Fossil fuels would fall from 49 percent of generation in FY2024 to about 1 percent, with hydropower at 47 percent, wind 25 percent, nuclear 18 percent and solar 8 percent. The study projected about 78 million tonnes of avoided carbon emissions.
The research flagged strain from the spread of distributed solar. It said minimum demand on the national grid could fall to nearly 3,000MW, which would require more grid flexibility, battery storage and demand-side management to keep the system stable.
On thermal plants, the institute proposed converting suitable existing generators into synchronous condensers to provide grid-support services, subject to technical and economic feasibility checks.
An assessment of power-sector indigenisation put potential local manufacturing at about Rs1.1 trillion against projected demand of Rs1.9 trillion for transmission and distribution equipment. It reviewed the readiness of about 49 local manufacturers and called on designated government bodies to speed up the Power Sector Indigenisation Plan envisaged in the National Electricity Plan 2023-2027.
Battery demand was projected to rise from about 4-5 gigawatt-hours in 2025-26 to 45-50GWh by 2031.
A panel with ISMO chief executive Dr Masood Ahmad, National Grid Pakistan managing director Altaf Hussain Malik, ISMO executive director Omer Haroon and institute experts Umar Farooq and Faisal Javaid Mughal took questions on reforms, investment priorities and renewable integration.
How the reports differ
Business Recorder carried the full account of the Islamabad dialogue, naming Dr Fiaz Ahmad Chaudhry and giving the $17 billion figure, the 3,000MW and Rs442.6 billion efficiency estimate, the FY2040 generation mix and the indigenisation numbers. Pakistan Today's version ran a single line saying the findings 'expose their savings to potential losses', with no figures, no named officials and no reference to the dialogue itself. Neither report carried a response from the power ministry or the regulator.
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