Lula wins Brazil runoff as Bolsonaro's son leaves for Florida
Flávio Bolsonaro, beaten on 25 October, is in Miami; Brazilian shares fell after the result and traders put a Trump meeting at 19.5%.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has been re-elected president of Brazil, winning the 25 October runoff against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. The defeat sent Flávio to Florida days later and moved both Brazilian shares and the betting odds on a meeting with US President Donald Trump.
Polls before the vote, cited by The Rio Times, had Flávio at 51% and Lula at 49%. The Wall Street Journal called the outcome a surprise Lula victory and reported that Brazil-exposed companies slid after it. BigGo Finance reported that Nubank shares also fell, while UBS and JPMorgan lifted their price targets on the bank.
Flávio left Brazil late on Tuesday 27 October and landed in Miami on Wednesday 28 October, The Rio Times reported. Before his departure, Brazil's Supreme Federal Court, the country's top court, ordered him to hand in his passports, which he did not do, according to that report.
Asked on 28 October about Flávio's claim to be Brazil's rightful president, Trump said he would not get involved, The Rio Times reported. Trump called the election "very strange" and the family "fine people", and said Jair Bolsonaro had been "treated really badly". He said he would approve their entry, and a State Department official confirmed visas for Flávio and his family.
Trump had received Flávio at the White House on 26 May 2026, when Flávio was still a presidential pre-candidate. Brazilian outlets reported the meeting widely and Trump posted photographs of it.
Traders on Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, put the chance that Trump meets Flávio in 2026 at 19.5% on Tuesday 3 November at 2:25pm ET, The Rio Times reported. That was down 36 points in a week. The market is small: $40,569 changed hands in the 24 hours before the reading. The contract opened on 27 October and runs to 31 December. A handshake, a direct conversation or another clear personal interaction counts as a meeting; standing in the same room does not.
No trigger for the fall has been established. The Rio Times reported the sharpest drop came on Monday 2 November, from the low 40s to 18.5%, before recovering briefly to 24.5%. Neither the White House nor Flávio's office has said whether a meeting is planned or has been requested.
The Irish News reported that buses stopped running on election day and that a volunteer effort it called "Lula's Army" used private cars.
How the reports differ
The reports split between the result and its aftermath. The Rio Times led with the prediction market, and was alone in reporting the Supreme Federal Court's passport order, the thin trading behind the odds and Trump's 28 October remarks about the family. The Wall Street Journal led with the market reaction, describing Lula's win as a surprise, while BigGo Finance focused on Nubank and noted that UBS and JPMorgan raised price targets despite the share fall. The Economist led on the result itself. The Irish News carried a detail the others did not, on buses stopping on election day and volunteers driving voters.
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