Plan to carve 12 provinces would take effect after 2029 polls

A proposal to break Pakistan into 12 provinces would not take effect until after the 2029 general elections, even if the constitutional amendments needed to create them are taken up next year, according to reports by Geo News and Minute Mirror that both cite sources familiar with the discussions.

Under the plan, Punjab would be divided into four provinces, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan into three each and Sindh into two, taking the country from four provinces to 12.

The sources said the existing provincial governments and assemblies would keep functioning until the next general elections even if the amendments passed next year. The new structure would follow the 2029 polls.

Both reports identified three issues as the hardest. The first is the National Finance Commission (NFC) Award, under which the provincial share of the federal divisible pool is distributed among the four provinces by a formula that weighs population, poverty and backwardness, and revenue generation. Eight new units would force a decision on whether that formula continues or is rewritten for 12 recipients.

The second is water. The 1991 Water Apportionment Accord sets the four provinces' shares of the Indus River system. Creating new provinces would require either dividing those shares among successor units or revising the accord, which both reports described as sensitive in areas where water availability, irrigation needs and dependence on farming are already disputed.

The third is money owed. Provincial debts, federal loans, outstanding transfers and other fiscal obligations would have to be split, with a mechanism deciding which new province carries which debt and how payments the Centre owes provinces pass to the new units. Geo News said this would need an assessment of each existing province and its proposed successor units to avoid disputes over assets, liabilities and dues.

Geo News attributed its account to a report in The News published on Monday. Minute Mirror did not name a publication behind its version. Neither outlet named an official, a ministry or a document setting out the proposal.

Both reports said the restructuring would need extensive consultation among the federal government, the provincial governments and other stakeholders before it could move towards implementation.