Reko Diq output may slip two years to 2030

Production at the Reko Diq copper and gold project in Balochistan could be pushed back by up to two years to 2030, with investors waiting for the province's security situation and Middle East tensions to ease before committing to a full construction schedule, Minute Mirror reported. ProPakistani, citing Dawn, carried the same assessment.

Barrick Mining, the Canadian company that holds 50 per cent of the project, began a formal review in February 2026 and announced a slowdown in development, extending its assessment period into early 2027. It is expected to resume full-scale work by mid-2027, but has not published a revised construction timeline, both outlets reported. The company's chief executive told the Mining Forum Americas last month that security improvements would be needed before it committed to a full schedule.

About 700 permanent employees and 2,000 contractual workers remain at the site, though some third-party service contracts have been allowed to expire. Research, administrative work and community development projects are continuing, according to the reports.

Estimates of what a delay would cost diverge. One industry source told Minute Mirror that added expenses could reach $8 billion to $10 billion, particularly if security deteriorates further. ProPakistani reported that figure as the cost if work resumes within a year, and said a delay beyond two years could make the project prohibitively expensive. An industry insider linked to the Reko Diq Mining Company put the increase at about 10 per cent, or $450 million to $900 million.

The same insider questioned plans to process only 30 to 35 per cent of the copper and gold output inside Pakistan, with the remainder possibly shipped to an Australian facility. ProPakistani reported that a proposal has been made for a consortium of local companies to buy a minority stake in the venture.

Ownership is split: Barrick holds 50 per cent, and the other half is divided equally between the Balochistan government and three state-owned companies, Pakistan Petroleum Limited, Oil and Gas Development Company Limited and Government Holdings Private Limited.

Phase one investment has risen from $4 billion to $5.6 billion, and phase two is expected to need another $3.5 billion, taking total capital expenditure to about $9.1 billion. The open-pit operation is designed to process 45 million tonnes of ore a year, doubling to 90 million tonnes after phase two. An updated feasibility study cut the planned mine life from 40 years to 37, with further exploration possibly extending it to 80.

Nearly $1 billion has already been invested. The project is projected to create about 7,500 jobs at peak construction and 4,000 permanent positions once running, and to generate $74 billion in free cash flow over 37 years.

Barrick chairman John L. Thornton is due in Pakistan this month for the Pakistan Minerals Investment Forum 2026 in Islamabad. Minute Mirror reported the visit is expected to provide an opportunity for discussions on the project's future and its investment prospects.